The Arizona Middle Class Tax Cuts Package: Operational Considerations for the 2025 Filing Season

Governor Katie Hobbs issued Executive Order 2025-15 on November 20, 2025, titled “Cutting Taxes for Hard-Working Arizonans”. This action initiates a series of prospective changes to the Arizona state income tax structure, primarily aimed at middle-class taxpayers. Given that the Executive Order (EO) directs the Arizona Department of Revenue (ADOR) to update state tax forms for the 2025 tax year, tax professionals must understand the technical directives of the order and the subsequent legislative action required to ensure the validity of these planned benefits.

Executive Order 2025-15: Directives and Scope

The core function of Executive Order 2025-15 is to mandate that ADOR update the State of Arizona tax forms to enable taxpayers to utilize the proposed Middle Class Tax Cuts Package when filing their 2025 tax returns.

The EO directs ADOR to implement two distinct categories of adjustments:

  1. Standard Deduction Update: The tax forms will be updated to include the higher standard deduction passed into law by H.R. 1. This brings Arizona tax forms into conformity with portions of H.R. 1 that benefit middle-class Arizonans. Specifically, the state standard deduction is set to increase from the previous $15,000 amount to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for joint filers.
  2. Prospective Instructions for Legislative Subtractions: The ADOR is also directed to include prospective instructions for Arizonans to take advantage of several new deductions. These instructions are included in anticipation of the legislature subsequently codifying these proposed measures into law.

It is important to note that any further tax conformity provisions, particularly those affecting corporations and high earners, are intended to be negotiated separately in the FY27 budget, consistent with the standard procedure for legislation that carries fiscal impacts.

Specific Proposed Subtractions and Deductions

The Middle Class Tax Cuts Package introduces several specific income subtractions designed to reduce Arizona taxable income:

  • Senior Deduction: An additional deduction of $6,000 for Arizonans over the age of 65.
  • Tipped Income Subtraction: Arizonans will be allowed to deduct tipped income from their state taxes. For instance, a hypothetical taxpayer’s return showed a $5,000 subtraction for tip income.
  • Overtime Income Subtraction: Arizonans will be allowed to deduct eligible overtime income from their state taxes. A hypothetical example illustrated a $3,000 subtraction for overtime wages.
  • Car Loan Interest Subtraction: Arizonans will be allowed to deduct interest for car loans on new, American-made vehicles from their taxes. A hypothetical taxpayer was shown benefiting from a $4,000 subtraction for car interest.

These combined subtractions and the increased standard deduction significantly impact the calculation of Arizona Taxable Income. In a modeled scenario, a 68-year-old single filer with a Federal Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) of $75,000 saw their Arizona Taxable Income drop from $60,000 (using the $15,000 standard deduction) to $41,250 (using the $15,750 standard deduction and $18,000 in additional subtractions).

Implications for Arizona 2025 Income Tax Returns

The Executive Order places ADOR in the position of issuing tax forms that incorporate subtractions that have not yet been statutorily enacted.

For tax professionals preparing 2025 returns, the primary operational challenge lies in the distinction between the standard deduction increase and the new subtractions:

  1. Standard Deduction: The increased standard deduction ($15,750 single / $31,500 joint) is included in the updated forms because it was “passed into law by H.R. 1”.
  2. Middle Class Subtractions: The deductions for tipped income, overtime, senior status, and car interest are based on “prospective instructions”. This means that while ADOR has been directed to enable these subtractions on the forms, their legal efficacy depends entirely upon the subsequent legislative action.

If the legislature fails to codify the Middle Class Tax Cuts Package, taxpayers who rely on the deductions specified in the ADOR’s prospective instructions could face deficiency assessments, as the subtractions would lack statutory authority.

The Urgency of Legislative Codification

Governor Hobbs has called upon the state legislature to immediately pass the Middle Class Tax Cuts Package at the beginning of the session. This urgency stems from the need to provide tax certainty to everyday Arizonans.

Crucially, the vast majority of taxpayers will file their 2025 returns prior to the anticipated completion of the FY27 budget. If the legislature delays the codification of the tips, overtime, senior, and car interest subtractions until the budget process concludes, those taxpayers who file early and claim these deductions, based on ADOR’s instructions, risk filing an erroneous return if the provisions are altered or rejected.

Therefore, for CPAs and EAs seeking to ensure clients maximize benefits without incurring future amendment requirements, the prompt codification of the Middle Class Tax Cuts Package into state law by the legislature is essential. Codification at the start of the session would retroactively grant the necessary statutory authority to the subtractions, aligning the law with the tax forms ADOR has been directed to issue under EO 2025-15.

The filing certainty for Arizona taxpayers regarding these proposed subtractions is currently akin to building a bridge that is authorized but not yet anchored; while the path forward is visible on the forms, its structural integrity relies entirely on the timely arrival of statutory legislative support.

Prepared with assistance from NotebookLM.

Sometimes Memorization Just Ain’t Enough (With Apologies to Patty Smyth for Borrowing Her Title)

In a recent article published by Futurism, Jad Tarifi, the founder of Google’s inaugural generative AI team, posited a cautionary stance regarding careers in law and medicine, asserting that these professions primarily entail the memorization of information. This assertion prompted a critical examination of prevalent misconceptions concerning the true nature of knowledge and skill acquisition within these domains.

A compelling illustration of this misunderstanding is evidenced by the consistent erroneous responses from three distinct AI large language models (LLMs) when queried about specific provisions within the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) designed to reduce an individual’s adjusted gross income. As I documented in a prior blog entry, I, a certified public accountant (CPA) without additional legal training, and certainly not possessing comprehensive recall of the entire OBBBA, was immediately able to identify the flaw in the models’ conclusions. This occurred despite the theoretical premise that these models “knew” the entirety of the Internal Revenue Code (IRC), along with all pertinent binding guidance, and had unfettered access to the complete legislative text that modified the aforementioned law.

Within tax law, rote memorization has never been, nor will it ever be, the sole method for ascertaining legal principles and their application. Instead, a meticulous reading of the law is imperative, necessitating careful attention to its enumerated items, cross-references, and the subsequent tracing of those references (which may lead to further cross-references) to construct a comprehensive understanding of the statute. Furthermore, the process involves distinguishing unambiguous statutory provisions, which dictate a singular interpretation, from those exhibiting ambiguity, which require interpretation. This interpretive process relies upon established canons of statutory construction developed over time.

Subsequent to this initial statutory analysis, the practitioner must then explore other existing interpretive binding official guidance, assess whether the law has undergone changes since such guidance was issued, and finally, consult expert discussions from third-party sources and non-binding official guidance. This comprehensive approach yields potentially supportable interpretations of the matter at hand, alongside an assessment of the likelihood that any given interpretation would ultimately be accepted by an IRS agent, an appellate conferee, or the highest court to which the case might escalate.

The fundamental flaw in the analyses provided by ChatGPT, Gemini, and BlueJ in this instance was their failure to commence with an isolated examination of the law. Instead, they prematurely resorted to other sources, neglecting to analyze the memorized legal text and the legislative amendments in isolation. Moreover, it remains unclear whether such isolated analysis is truly feasible for these models given their operational paradigms.

As previously detailed, the OBBBA provisions concerning the exemption of tips, overtime pay, and car loan interest from taxation were appended as deductions to Section 63 of the IRC. This classification renders them deductions taken along with either the standard deduction or itemized deductions in computing taxable income, rather than deductions that reduce adjusted gross income. As elaborated upon in the earlier article, deductions utilized in the computation of adjusted gross income would be allocated to Section 62.

While the models had purportedly memorized the entire structure of the IRC, theoretically imparting this knowledge, they failed to undertake the crucial step that tax CPAs and attorneys should perform at this juncture: consulting the statutory text and following cross-references to gain an initial understanding of the IRC’s provisions as amended pertaining to this issue. Instead, they were diverted by other related information contained within their models and acquired from the web during data updates to fill in for developments taking place after the end of time covered by their training. This data included articles quoting Congressional sources that correctly noted these items were deductible regardless of whether a taxpayer itemized deductions. Furthermore, the training data encompassed years of articles that referred to various prior specific items deductible irrespective of itemization as “above the line” deductions. Their data also indicated that “above the line” signified a deduction used in computing adjusted gross income. None of this memorized data was factually incorrect, though much of it proved irrelevant in this specific context.

Consequently, the models quickly identified a high correlation between the terms “deductible even if the taxpayer does not itemize deductions” and a deduction being categorized as “above the line,” as well as a nearly one-to-one correlation between a deduction being referred to as “above the line” and its use in computing adjusted gross income. Again, all of this derived from the memorized information was accurate.

However, at this juncture, the analysis fell apart due to an incorrect inference. The models utilized all data indicating these deductions were available to both itemizing and non-itemizing taxpayers (which was entirely correct) to infer that these deductions were “above the line” and utilized in computing adjusted gross income (absolutely not correct). This inference was reinforced by the historical commentary present within their vast memorized data. Nevertheless, it was an inference that proved completely erroneous.

The question then arises: why did the models’ access to more current sources not challenge their conclusions? This highlights the fallibility of many human authors who were expeditiously producing commentary on the bill. Numerous such articles, some originating from highly reputable sources, incorrectly labeled these provisions as “above the line” deductions.

While the precise reasons for these authors’ misclassification remain speculative, it appears evident that they did not base their initial articles on a direct analysis of the bill itself and the Internal Revenue Code for this issue. It is plausible that many made the same inference that the LLMs derived from their extensive memorized data—namely, that historically, Congress had enacted provisions for items deductible even without itemization as deductions used to compute adjusted gross income. Others, encountering previously published articles making the claim that these deductions reduced adjusted gross income, simply relied upon those sources. Furthermore, I suspect that some authors, operating under time constraints, posed the question to LLMs, which, based on their initial model assumptions, provided the erroneous result.

In any event, the articles discovered by the LLMs analyzing the law served to corroborate their models’ initial assumptions, which were rooted in their extensive memorized data, thereby creating a significant feedback loop.

My approach to the new legislation mirrored that of previous laws, with the notable addition of Google’s NotebookLM, an AI application primarily reliant on user-provided sources. The notebook I established contained exclusively the tax provisions of the statute. As I systematically reviewed each section of the bill, I utilized NotebookLM to generate summaries of the respective sections, while simultaneously conducting my own independent review to ensure comprehensive understanding and prevent oversight during rapid analysis of the law.

NotebookLM’s analysis was largely confined to the provided document, offering little beyond the assertion that each provision modified Section 63 since that was all that was available to the application. Consequently, I cross-referenced Section 63 to ascertain the specific implications of such modifications. As I knew Congress had, on a rare occasion, introduced an additional “below the line” deduction by placing it in this Section, accessible regardless of whether a taxpayer itemized deductions. They had decided to do this multiple times in the new bill.

A precedent for such a deduction can be found in the Qualified Business Income (QBI) Deduction under IRC §199A, enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. This provision has remained in effect and its application was extended as part of the OBBBA.

Posing inquiries to the models regarding the placement of these deductions within Section 63, akin to the QBI deduction in 2017, frequently resolved the models’ prior limitations. This shift in focus directed their attention to articles detailing that specific deduction and highlighting the impact of its placement in Section 63 rather than Section 62. The models subsequently confirmed that the bill text indeed added these deductions to Section 63 and, likely drawing from the newly focused articles, concluded that these deductions do not reduce adjusted gross income.

Even if their approach remained flawed, they did finally arrive at a correct solution.

I am not an attorney and do not claim to be one. However, I would be astonished if similar problems didn’t frequently emerge when parties depend on LLMs for tasks typically handled by law students who would become attorneys, whom Mr. Tarifi suggests should discontinue their legal studies.

Mr. Tarifi undoubtedly possesses far greater knowledge of LLMs and AI than I ever will. Yet, I question whether proponents of AI solutions truly grasp the issues they aim to resolve, or if they merely presume to understand them. The immediate availability of the entire IRC and all supporting documentation within an LLM’s model is genuinely incredibly useful and will revolutionize our approach to tax research and analysis. Nevertheless, I hope I have demonstrated how mere rote memorization is insufficient to perform the job being done today—nor do I observe signs that newer models are progressing beyond memorization to conduct a comprehensive analysis of new laws and developments.

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a significant advancement that professionals in tax practice must comprehend to maintain relevance. However, similar to the introduction of computers in the 1960s and 1970s and subsequent machine learning enhancements beyond initial automation of routine preparation tasks, LLMs are not anticipated to be the technology that renders tax professionals obsolete.

An Interesting Error from LLMs in Tax Research That Does Not Seem to Be a Hallucination

I was experimenting with three LLMs on a tax research issue recently. I asked them to identify deductions newly available to individuals without a business or rental activity that are deductible in computing adjusted gross income (AGI).

ChatGPT, Gemini, and BlueJ (a paid service for tax professionals) all identified the following:

  • No tax on tips
  • No tax on overtime
  • No tax on interest on car loans

As I’ll show, this answer is wrong. But first, consider this: they all arrived at the same incorrect answer. While we know that LLMs can hallucinate, this isn’t likely a hallucination (an answer created from thin air). If all three models were hallucinating, they would be highly unlikely to invent the exact same error.

The key to the error lies in the distinction between IRC §62 and §63. If you’ve taken my course on the OBBBA, you’ll recall I noted that these specific deductions are routed through §63 (computation of taxable income), not §62 (computation of adjusted gross income). The most well-known §63 deduction is the QBI deduction under §199A-it reduces taxable income on Form 1040 but does not reduce AGI. Because it doesn’t reduce federal AGI, it also doesn’t reduce Arizona taxable income, a crucial point for us here in Arizona.

So, how did all three AIs get the same wrong answer? It’s simple: a large number of human authors, whose material was used in the models’ training data or accessed via web searches, made the same mistake. Because these new deductions were touted as being available even to non-itemizers, many authors assumed they were “above-the-line” deductions and described them as such. However, a review of the statute makes it clear: the OBBBA added these provisions to §63 but made no change to §62.

It’s true that the LLMs didn’t consult the text of the law; they don’t perform legal analysis. Rather, they synthesize the analysis that others have prepared and published, giving extra weight to “high-quality” sources. In this case, a large percentage of human analysts made the same mistake.

There are understandable reasons for this. Bill proponents repeatedly noted the deductions were available even if a taxpayer did not itemize. Many general-purpose financial publications quickly released articles stating these deductions were “above the line.” They presumably equated being able to take a deduction without itemizing with it being an “above-the-line” deduction-an association that was generally, but not always, true before the TCJA and OBBBA.

From personal experience, I know producing an analysis of a new tax bill is done under extreme pressure. Reading federal legislation is messy; the bill only shows the amendments, not the law in its final, consolidated form. It’s easy to miss the significance of a deduction being added to §63 instead of §62.

This distinction is critical because AGI impacts numerous calculations. For states like Arizona that start with federal AGI, these deductions won’t reduce state taxable income. Furthermore, AGI affects tax thresholds (like phase-outs and deduction floors) and even non-tax items like the IRMAA calculation for Medicare premiums.

The takeaway is that relying on a human-written analysis is no guarantee of correctness, either. I have sat through continuing education webinars on the OBBBA that contained this exact error. At this point, the error is so common that it has likely “infected” other human authors, who repeat it after hearing it from multiple sources.

I fully understand how this error was made and could easily have made the same mistake myself (and have likely made other mistakes).  But unless you are working directly from source materials you have to always remember that there could be flaws in the analysis you are reading-and sometimes these errors become self-reinforcing when authors have seen or read previous analyses.